Professor Volić for Hayat TV

The only way to get to the peak of the coronavirus is a vaccine. What do these numbers even mean, what can we learn from them, how should we approach them, what is the reproductive number through which the behavior of the virus can be understood, and why is it necessary to take several different measures to overcome the epidemic? In the show "Dobar Dan BiH," we spoke with Ismar Volić, professor of mathematics at Wellesley College in Boston. These days, with the coronavirus pandemic, the terms linear and exponential growth are very often used. Professor, what is linear and what is exponential growth? Exponential is what we try to avoid because that way we can infect more people. People must know this. How can we avoid exponential growth? Is it through the measures introduced by the crisis headquarters?

• That's right and that's the only way, and I hope that the Crisis Staff listens to the scientists and tells us the right things.

As I said in the announcement, you live in Boston, USA. According to the current data at your disposal, what is the situation with the growth of the number of patients in the USA? Has the US reached peak contagion?

• They are, but also when talking about America it depends where you are. About a third of the infected are here, and again we can't be sure of the numbers. The government is inefficient and is run by an incompetent and unintelligent man. Fortunately, states can and do react on their own. It seems that we have reached a plateau and we are waiting for the number to start decreasing.

Do you know what the situation is with our people there?

• As far as I know, everything is fine so far, we are taking care of as much as we can. We are trying to preserve psychological stability in all this.

What is the difference between the peak of the epidemic and the second wave of infection?

• When 80 percent of the population is infected, then we reach the peak, because the virus has no one to infect. The only way to reach the peak of the coronavirus is a vaccine, or for the population to get sick up to 80 percent. We are not even close to it, the numbers are certainly higher than we think. Of course, it is not even close to population immunity.

The World Health Organization warns that a new wave is likely to be expected in September. According to mathematical projections, how much is it possible, and how will it possibly differ from the first wave? - I think it is very likely that some measures are not followed. We can try to normalize things during the summer, but a lot also depends on behavior. The second wave probably won't be as dangerous as the second one. We hope to get immunity with the vaccine. How can the second wave and the second peak of infection be prevented? Are the current measures effective enough to suppress the coronavirus until a vaccine appears?

•  I think they are because we have a lot of things under control. It is kept under control until a vaccine is developed.

Today is one of the blackest days in BiH, what does that mean?

• We may have let people walk too soon, and that may very well be the problem. The situation must be normalized very carefully, with the presence of a large number of tests, but BiH does not have that.

According to mathematics, when should we hope for the end of the pandemic? – According to some announcements, they could have a vaccine next spring, and there are a large number of scientists who are inspired to defeat this virus. That is why in a year we may get a vaccine and start hoping for normalization of things.